2020 Final Model Release (version 2020.1.0)

04.25.2020 : release, 2020

The final predictions for the 2020 NHL draft are now available. See home for the links.

This despite the NHL draft being as yet unscheduled.

Summary of Updates:

As has been the case for all releases to date, the model and project as a whole have evolved a bit since the previous release. Here is a summary of some of the updates with respect to the initial 2020 model (2020.0.0).

Model Performance:

As mentioned above, model performance is now calculated in a more standard way, using the AUC score. This metric certainly has some caveats, but is widely used in the machine learning industry.

Please note that the models are currently optimized for the best and worst class. For example, this means that emphasis is placed on 'Miss Prob.' and 'First-Liner Prob.' for forwards.

AUC data for defensemen:

AUC data for forwards:

There are many ways to interpret these results. Maybe this will be the subject of a future post. As usual, performance for forwards outpaces performance for defensemen.

Please feel free to reach out with any questions on twitter.