2020 Predictions Release (version 2020.0.0)

2020-02-09 00:00:00
release, 2020

The initial version of the predictions for the 2020 draft class are available. See home for the links.

As usual, re-draft results are posted to evaluate the algorithm. These predictions use the same model that's used for the current data, but the predictions are done on players for which we have an idea of where their careers are headed.

In summary, this release shows a decent improvement for forward predictions, but the model for defensemen remains a work in progress, even within the already narrow realm we're working in (PPG is not as aligned with 'success' as it is for forwards).

For forwards, the model appears to be 'correct' (within about .2 PPG) about 60% of the time, and 'not wrong' (within about .4 ppg) about 85% of the time. There are a lot of caveats to those metrics, so they just give an approximate idea of model performance. Model performance for defensemen is still unremarkable.

There have been many updates since the last release, including:

I'm aiming for another release closer to the 2020 draft.

As usual, feel free to reach out with any questions on twitter.