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Blog -- 2019 Redraft (release 2019.1.0)
2019-10-07 00:00:00 -- update

Predictions for the 2019 draft class have been updated. Here are the predictions for forwards, and here are the predictions for defensemen. As usual, validation data is posted for previous years.

Since the 2019 draft has come and gone, the main goal of the re-prediction is to show progress on the model. Updates since the original predictions for the 2019 NHL draft include:

Specific data about the model performance for a given draft year (e.g.) is found at the bottom of each prediction page, but here's a short summary of how the model is doing:

Note that there's a lot of players we didn't take a guess at, due to missing data or other technical reasons, so the above figures would need some adjusting if we want to consider the entire draft class.

Overall, I'd say the results are decent but obviously there is much room for improvment. Looking at some of the misses, some defy explanation where others are more acceptable (e.g., player is very short or had a terrible junior season). There's a lot of other interesting ways to interpret some of the predictions, maybe I'll post about this in the future.

Since this is a 'spare time' project for me, the next major update will probably be for the 2020 draft class predictions.

Feel free to reach out on twitter.